A look into the past, present and future potential distributions of Talinopsis frutescens, a North American endemic lineage closely related to Cactaceae

更新时间:2023-05-28

【摘要】Talinopsis frutescens(Anacampserotaceae, a family that is close related to Cactaceae) is a succulent species endemic to North America. The aim of this study was to explore, using Ecological Niche Modeling(ENM), changes in potential distribution ranges considering different climate scenarios: past conditions during the Last Inter Glacial(LIG) and the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM), the present and projections for 2070(RCP 2.6 to 8.5). A pattern of contraction is observed during the LIG, which agrees with other studies focused in species from arid environments. This pattern was followed by a migration towards the south during the LGM and a possible recent expansion to the north as is observed in the present scenario. All future projections show the same contraction and fragmentation patterns, resulting in three discontinuous areas: the northern part of the Chihuahuan Desert, the southern-central part of the Mexican Plateau, and the smallest one in the Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Valley. Our projections for future scenarios agree with other studies and support that global climate change tends to alter the current distribution of arid environment species.

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